Welcome
In this week’s CommenTerry, I discuss the mystery of the out-of-whack Diplomas Counts graduation rate for African-American students in North Carolina. Does it reflect genuine improvement or is it a statistical aberration?
Bulletin Board
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Join Judge John M. Tyson in beautiful Edenton, North Carolina, for a discussion of the presidency of James Polk. The North Carolina History Project is sponsoring Judge Tyson’s lecture, " ‘I Am the Hardest Working Man in the Country’: President James K. Polk and Presidential Goals." The lecture will begin at 6:00 pm on Tuesday, June 21, at the 1767 Chowan County Courthouse National Historic Landmark, 117 East King Street, in Edenton. The event is free and open to the public. Preregistration is encouraged. Preregister by calling 1-866-JLF INFO or sending an email to [email protected].
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Learn what politicians, left-wing economic professors, and the liberal media don’t want you to know about economics, all without the confusion and clutter of complicated mathematical equations. Attend the Civitas Institute’s Free Market Academy on Saturday June 25, from 9 am to 3 pm at the Resident Inn,
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The North Carolina History Project would like educators and homeschool parents to submit lesson plans suitable for middle and high school courses in North Carolina history. Please provide links to NC History Project encyclopedia articles and other primary and secondary source material, if possible. Go to the NC History Project website for further information.
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You will find wisdom, knowledge, and purpose at our research newsletter archive.
You may have read reports that North Carolina’s graduation rate for African-American students was "the third best in the country at 72.3 percent." The statistic came from the 2011 Diplomas Count report, an annual report published by Education Week.
Education Week examined graduation rates from 1998 to 2008, so the 72.3 percent rate is a few years old. But this is a minor concern. Diplomas Count researchers relied on the most recent federal data available. The problem is that the rate does not square with any other graduation rate calculated for North Carolina’s African-American students for the 2007-2008 school year.
For example, the four-year graduation rate for African-American high school students, as calculated by the NC Department of Public Instruction in 2008, was 62.7 percent. The difference between the state’s rate and the Diplomas Count rate of 72.3 percent is unusual, perhaps even suspect.
Moreover, the National Center for Education Statistics, which used a methodology similar to Diplomas Count, reported that the graduation rate for North Carolina’s African-American students was 61.9 percent in 2008. In other words, state and federal statistics produced similar graduation rates — only a 0.8 percent difference. The Diplomas Count rate is 9.6 percent higher than the state rate and 10.4 percent higher than the federal rate. To quote Sesame Street,
One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn’t belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?
Did you guess which thing was not like the others?
Did you guess which thing just doesn’t belong?
If you guessed this one is not like the others,
Then you’re absolutely…right!
Curiously, NC DPI boasts about the similarities between the methodologies used by the state and Diplomas Count researchers. According to the DPI press release,
Rates reported in Diplomas Count are based on a Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) based on promotion rates throughout high school and students’ earning a diploma. North Carolina reports four-year and five-year graduation rates using a cohort graduation rate that actually follows each individual student from ninth grade entry throughout high school. The four-year cohort rate is very similar to the rate calculated by Diplomas Count researchers. North Carolina is one of only four states with a reported cohort rate that is not inflated above that calculated by the EPE [Editorial Projects in Education] researchers.
While the Diplomas Count statewide graduation rate is similar to the one calculated by NC DPI, their claim is not true for the African-American rate. This begs the question: Why are the statewide rates consistent but the African-American rates so different?
To add intrigue to mystery, I contacted Vanessa Jeter (Director of Communications & Information for NC DPI) and Christopher Swanson (lead Diplomas Count researcher), and I asked them to address my concerns. I have not received responses from either.
Random Thought
I am looking forward to the premier of Falling Skies, Sunday June 19 at 9 pm on TNT. Here is the premise: "FALLING SKIES opens in the chaotic aftermath of an alien attack that has left most of the world completely incapacitated. In the six months since the initial invasion, the few survivors have banded together outside major cities to begin the difficult task of fighting back. Each day is a test of survival as citizen soldiers work to protect the people in their care while also engaging in an insurgency campaign against the occupying alien force."
It is an allegory about the Obama administration (alien attack, incapacitated world) and the Tea Party (citizen soldiers, insurgency campaign). Just kidding.
Facts and Stats
NC DPI graduation rates for African-American high school students, 2006-2010:
2006: 60.4%
2007: 61.4%
2008: 62.7%
2009: 63.2%
2010: 66.9%
Mailbag
I would like to invite all readers to submit announcements, as well as their personal insights, anecdotes, concerns, and observations about the state of education in North Carolina. I will publish selected submissions in future editions of the newsletter. Anonymity will be honored. For additional information or to send a submission, email Terry at [email protected].
Education Acronym of the Week
CPI — Cumulative Promotion Index
Quote of the Week
"Despite such clear indications of progress, the fact is that too many students continue to fall through the cracks of America’s high schools. We project that, nearly 1.2 million students from this year’s high school class will fail to graduate with a diploma. That amounts to 6,400 students lost each day of the year, or one student every 27 seconds."
– Christopher B. Swanson, "Analysis Finds Graduation Rates Moving Up," Education Week online, May 31, 2011
