The Ice Age Cometh

This weekly newsletter, focused on environmental issues, highlights relevant analysis done by the John Locke Foundation and other think tanks, as well as items in the news.

1. The Ice Age Cometh

Those pesky sunspots, or lack of them, may be just one of the many variables getting in the way of the "end of the world" global warming projections. According to this story in the UK Register, sunspot activity seems to be slowing dramatically, and historically sunspot activity tends to be correlated with the Earth’s climate. This explanation is from the Register:

This could have major implications for the Earth’s climate. According to a statement issued by the NSO, announcing the research:

An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots [which occurred] during 1645-1715.

As NASA notes:

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715. Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past.

During the Maunder Minimum and for periods either side of it, many European rivers which are ice-free today — including the Thames — routinely froze over, allowing ice skating and even for armies to march across them in some cases.

2. EPA Fudging Cost/Benefit Numbers

According to analysis commissioned by the National Taxpayers’ Union, EPA cost/benefit, or more particularly, just-benefit claims regarding new clean-air rules are based totally on feelings and not actual data. The EPA is claiming that new air-quality rules will generate over $2 trillion in benefits by 2020. Here’s what economist David Montgomery, author of the NTU study, concludes after reviewing the EPA’s claims:

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has repeatedly claimed that air quality regulations will provide up to $2 trillion in annual economic benefits, based on estimates for the year 2020. This is contained in its second report on the "Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act from 1990 to 2020"as well as in numerous public statements by senior EPA officials. …

EPA is building a very misleading impression of what that $2 trillion means. In 2020 U.S. GDP is projected to be about $20 trillion. Does the EPA mean that in the absence of air quality regulations, GDP in 2020 would be only $18 trillion? Not at all. … EPA’s own macroeconomic study, buried in the same report as the widely quoted $2 trillion number, finds that in 2010 the same air quality regulations have reduced U.S. GDP by between $32 and $79 billion, and that by 2020, the impact of those regulations could range from a loss of $110 billion to a gain of $5 billion. …

The reason these numbers conflict so dramatically is that the claimed $2 trillion benefit has nothing to do with the actual amount of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy or the number of jobs that are available. The $2 trillion figure is a "willingness to pay" number. … At best … would indicate something about individual attitudes toward health risk from pollution. But they are not tied to the added income those individuals might expect from living longer or the effects of pollution on the economy. Thus, the $2 trillion net benefits claimed by EPA will never show up as increased output or jobs in the real economy.

The full study can be accessed here.

3. Ozone Report

Each week during the summer ozone season this newsletter will report how many, if any, high-ozone days had been experienced throughout the state during the previous week, where they were experienced, and how many have been recorded during the entire season to date. While many environmental groups express concern about air quality, the John Locke Foundation is the only organization that keeps up-to-date track of the actual ozone data and reports it in an unfiltered manner on a regular basis.

The ozone season began on April 1 and ends October 31. All reported data are from the North Carolina Division of Air Quality, which is part of the state’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources.

During the period from June 20 through June 26 there were 6 reported high-ozone readings, which occurred on 6 different monitors throughout the state on the same day. So far this season there have been 53 readings on various North Carolina monitors that have exceeded federal standards of 0.75 parts per billion.

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