Friday’s edition of The Charlotte Business Journal does a great job of laying out just how dire Charlotte’s economic condition really is — and will be. First, up income.

Income is a function of employment. Employment is getting hammered and will only get worse. Wachovia’s Mark Vitner says unemployment will hit 12 percent before the current recession is over — and Vitner agrees we are only half way through it. NC State’s Mike Walden sees a 13 percent jobless rate for Charlotte. UNCC’s economist John Connaughton notes that the BofA and Wachovia layoffs have barely started.

Next up, a great account of the “shadow rental” market in Uptown condos. In sum, would-be flippers have been caught holding condos they never wanted, resulting in near firesale rents. Next step, walking away from the units altogether. We are not there — yet. But if employment continues to soften, where will the income come from to pay the housing costs?

Finally, Erik Spanberg wades into the fiscal mystery that is the Charlotte Regional Visitors Authority to come up with some disturbing numbers:

Midway through fiscal 2009, revised forecasts for the current year project a 13% decline in hotel occupancy taxes, a 1% dip in food and beverage taxes and a 20% drop in rental-car taxes. Those figures are in comparison with fiscal 2008. The visitors authority had anticipated gains in all three categories, ranging from 3.4% to 4.5%. … In fiscal 2009, the Visit Charlotte budget is $11 million. Plunging tax revenue is now expected to force the city to use $1.4 million from its $2.8 million hospitality reserve fund to meet the current budget. And $600,000 in reserves would be tapped next year, leaving the reserve fund with $800,000.

Yet the city swears that hotel-motel tax revenue is still sufficient to keep the $195m. NASCAR Hall of Fame/Convention Center expansion on track. Not for long. Not with 12-13% unemployment on the horizon. In fact, the city should be assuming a 10% reduction in hospitality tax revenue in 2009 and a further 5% drop in 2010. That way anything better would be a pleasant surprise.