by Jon Sanders
Research Editor and Senior Fellow, Regulatory Studies, John Locke Foundation
Image source: Screenshot from GalaxyCon Raleigh at the Raleigh Convention Center, July 31, 2021, per GalaxyCon Raleigh on Twitter.
This past week 99.7% of people in NC posed no threat of passing along COVID-19 to anyone, and over three-fourths (75.4%) of adult North Carolinians are estimated to be immune.
Here is the NC Threat-Free Index for the week ending August 2:
For August 2, the estimate is now over three-fourths (75.4%) of adult North Carolinians with immunity (vaccine-induced immunity and natural immunity), using CDC estimates of actual infections and DHHS estimates of current vaccinations and the formula outlined here.
Recall that Cooper’s standard of immunity was two-thirds (66.7%) of adult North Carolinians partially vaccinated. This standard had no regard whatsoever for natural immunity from actual infection, even though that is the stronger and more durable immunity. Vaccination is a means, not the end — the goal is herd immunity. With 61 percent of North Carolinians already partially vaccinated, that should be more than sufficient for North Carolinians to be past two-thirds goal of adult North Carolinians with immunity.
Furthermore, including vaccinated and naturally immune children (18 and under) into the mix, North Carolina is at 71.3% immunity. As a reminder, it is widely accepted that herd immunity from Covid-19 is with 70% of people immune.
Unlike with previous weeks, most of the “new” deaths announced in the past week occurred within the past month. Even though 80 of the 90 deaths occurred in July, nine of the “new” deaths actually occurred between December 2020 and February 2021.