by Jon Sanders
Director of the Center for Food, Power, and Life, Research Editor | John Locke Foundation
Image source: Screenshot from a July 25 WNCT story reflecting people’s excitement in Charlotte to enjoy live music again upon the first major concert of the year.
This past week 99.8% of people in NC posed no threat of passing along COVID-19 to anyone, and an estimated 74.5% of adult North Carolinians are immune. Readers be advised: these numbers reflect what Gov. Roy Cooper desperately refers to as a “State of Emergency.”
Here is the NC Threat-Free Index for the week ending July 26:
For July 26, the estimate is now 74.5% of adult North Carolinians with immunity (vaccine-induced immunity and natural immunity), using CDC estimates of actual infections and DHHS estimates of current vaccinations and the formula outlined here.
Recall that Cooper’s standard of immunity was two-thirds (66.7%) of adult North Carolinians partially vaccinated. This standard had no regard whatsoever for natural immunity from actual infection, even though that is the stronger and more durable immunity. Vaccination is a means, not the end — the goal is herd immunity. With 60 percent of North Carolinians already partially vaccinated, that should be more than sufficient for North Carolinians to be past two-thirds of adult North Carolinians with immunity.
Furthermore, including vaccinated and naturally immune children (18 and under) into the mix, North Carolina is at 70.3% immunity. As a reminder, it is widely accepted that herd immunity from Covid-19 is with 70% of people immune.
As with previous weeks, many “new” deaths announced in the past week actually occurred several months ago, even in 2020. There were 45 total “new” deaths announced in the past week, 35 of which (78%) had actually occurred from May 2021 on. Nine of the reported “new” deaths in the week from July 20–26 actually occurred between September 2020 to February 2021.