Image source: Screenshot from an Oct. 30 WXII story about the “Stand Up For America” rally in Raleigh on Oct. 29.

This past week about 99.8% of people in NC posed no threat of passing along COVID-19 to anyone, and about eight out of nine (88.8%) adult North Carolinians are estimated to have either vaccine-induced or natural immunity.

Here is the NC Threat-Free Index for the week ending November 1. All of the statistics generated for the NC Threat-Free Index are based on numbers provided by government sources. This link gives a detailed explanation of how each statistic is derived.

  • As of November 1: 1,441,300 North Carolinians are presumed to be recovered from COVID-19
  • Active cases comprised just 1.6% of NC’s total case count (note: a case of COVID isn’t a permanent infection, and only someone with an active case of the virus can conceivably transmit it to you)
  • Active cases represented just over 0.2% (two-tenths of one percent) of NC’s population (note: active cases are lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 minus recoveries and deaths)
  • Also, 35 out of every 36 (97.2%) of NC’s total cases were recovered, meaning they are (a) no longer infectious, (b) have acquired persistent, longlasting, and robust natural immunity to Covid-19, and (c) have stronger immunity against Covid-19 and its variants than even those who are fully vaccinated
  • Only 0.17% of people in NC had died with COVID-19 (regardless of the actual cause of death and amid research findings as well as admissions from DHHS and the CDC that a significant proportion of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths were “not related to COVID-19”)
  • All things considered, nearly 99.8% of people in NC posed no threat of passing along COVID-19 to anyone (note: this proportion will fluctuate based on relative growth in lab-confirmed cases vs. recoveries, and it is likely understated because it does not account for vaccinations)

Herd immunity, reinfections, and post-vaccination infections

For the week ending November 1:

  • Now about eight out of nine (88.8%) adult North Carolinians are estimated to have some immunity, whether vaccine-induced immunity or natural immunity, the stronger and more durable immunity, to Covid-19 (note: this estimate uses DHHS case numbers, CDC estimates of actual infections, DHHS estimates of current vaccinations, and the formula outlined here)
  • Furthermore, including vaccinated and naturally immune children (18 and under) into the mix, North Carolina is at 82.7% immunity
  • As of November 1, there had been 11,922 reinfections for those with prior lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19, and the estimated reinfection rate was 0.8% (note: for reasons discussed here, the actual reinfection rate is likely much lower than the estimated rate)
  • As of October 16, per the most recent update from DHHS, there had been 87,353 post-vaccination infections, and the estimated post-vaccination infection rate was over 1.6%  (note: given how strictly DHHS defines a “post-vaccination infection” — someone must be at least two weeks past receiving the second of two injections; anyone with only one injection or within two weeks of receiving the second “counts” as an unvaccinated case of Covid — the actual post-vaccination infection rate could be much higher than the estimated rate)
  • Also as of October 16, 22% of Covid-19 cases in North Carolina were to people considered fully vaccinated
  • As of November 1, only about one in nine (11.2%) North Carolinians were estimated to have neither vaccine-induced nor natural immunity

DHHS discovers another “new” death from 2020

Also, sometime in the past week, DHHS reported as a “new” Covid-19 death one that had occurred on December 14, 2020.