by Jon Sanders
Research Editor and Senior Fellow, Regulatory Studies, John Locke Foundation
Image source: Screenshot of May 28 WRAL report on crowds returning to North Carolina beaches for Memorial Day weekend.
WARNING: The numbers below concern what Gov. Roy Cooper is desperately referring to as a “State of Emergency.”
Here is the NC Threat-Free Index for the week ending May 31.
Prior to Biden administration crisis overload surprising Gov. Roy Cooper into having to lift nearly all personal and business restrictions, the Cooper administration’s standard for lifting those restrictions had been “once two-thirds of adult North Carolinians have received at least one vaccine dose.”
Cooper’s two-thirds standard must actually refer to community immunity (herd immunity), I assume, rather than being another arbitrary and capricious measure. Recognizing what people and even the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention intrinsically knew until sometime in 2020, that community immunity has two prongs — vaccine-induced immunity and natural immunity — I estimated late last week that already more than two-thirds of adults in North Carolina were immune.
Updating the numbers for the week ending May 31, the estimate is now 69.8% of adult North Carolinians with immunity. As a reminder, it is widely accepted that herd immunity from Covid-19 is with 70% of people immune. The rapid decline in virus numbers in North Carolina is also indicative that North Carolina is either at or very near herd immunity.