And the promised look at why US Airways’ Charlotte-Ottawa flight is ending in early June. The simple answer is that the Canadian market has turned against US Airways.

If you go back to 2008 through 2012, US Airways clearly regarded Canada as low-hanging fruit, among the easiest expansion opportunities out there. Entering 2008, the airline’s routes from its eastern hubs (I’m excluding Phoenix from this analysis) to Canada were:

Philadelphia: Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa

Charlotte: Toronto

And then the route additions started:

2008: Charlotte – Montreal

2010: Philadelphia – Halifax, Charlotte – Ottawa

2011: Philadelphia – Quebec City

2012: Washington Reagan National – Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto (with slots obtained from Delta in the slot swap)

Looks good right? Well, then the pullback began:

Washington – Ottawa didn’t make it through 2013

Washington – Montreal was dropped in the summer of 2014

Philadelphia – Quebec City service became seasonal this year

And now the elimination of Charlotte – Ottawa.

There have been significant capacity cuts on surviving cuts too. For example, in 2010, when US Airways added its Charlotte-Ottawa flight, it was also flying three-times a day from Philly to the Canadian capital. These days it’s only twice a day.

What of Montreal? Or put another way, given the recent Canadian route eliminations, can we expect Montreal service to last? The answer is “maybe.” US Airways has cut capacity to Montreal too. In March 2012, the airline offered:

Philadelphia – Montreal: 6 flights a day, three on large regional jets carrying 69 or 76 passengers, and three 50-seaters

Charlotte – Montreal: 2 flights a day, on a 76-seat large regional jet, the other on a 50-seater.

March 2015:

Philadelphia – Montreal: Five flights a day, all on 50-seat regional jets

Charlotte – Montreal: Once a day, on a 50-seater.

So nearly a 40 percent cut in capacity over the last three years. Not a good sign.

American Airlines does do well in Montreal though, but I’m not sure that helps the case for keeping the remaining Charlotte – Montreal flight — this may be a case where other AA/US hubs (Chicago, Philadelphia and  Miami) can offer enough connection option to render a long route on a high cost per seat mile 50-seat regional jet to Charlotte redundant. Time will tell.

Update: Delta sees an opportunity in this and is starting Atlanta – Ottawa service in July.