Uptown paper of record transportation reporter Steve Harrison wades into the South Blvd. light rail ridership numbers we’ve been hashing over and comes back — confused.
Lo and behold the numbers CATS spits out do not add up. In the line’s first month of operation, CATS’ light rail kiosks only took in an average of $7135 a day. Even if we round the $1.30 one-way fare to $1 to reflect various discounts and passes, that is still only 7100 rides a day, far below CATS’ projection of 9100 a day and no where near its recent claims of 12,000 rides a day.
What is going on? How did CATS come to its 12,000 number to begin with if its ticket sales only reflect an average of 5500 or so full-fare rides a day?
CATS tells Harrison that 1) Monthly passes 2) Transfers and 3) Fare jumpers account for the difference. That’s a helluva thing. Just how many monthly passes are there?
And so many people are jumping on the trains for free? CATS says kiosk glitches (surprise!) are forcing frustrated riders to hop on sans ticket. Really. I know for a fact that folks are at least as likely to bail on the train and drive into town instead.
But there is an even deeper mystery.
Harrison reports that CATS only expected to collect $180,000 a month during the system’s first year of operation. That is only $6000 a day. How in the world did CATS expect 9100 rides to generate only $6000? That is only 66 cents a ride.
Here’s one explanation. A take of $6000 divided by the full-fare of $1.30 equals 4600 rides a day. And 2 X 4600 equals 9100ish. Are you still with me here?
It sure looks like that somewhere along the line, CATS morphed those 4600 rides reflected in the $6000 projection into 4600 riders — each of whom requires two one-way trips. Viola! 9100 rides.
See? Crystal clear CATS math.
I previously suggested to wait until the end of January to get a full-month farebox tally for the South line. Now I really think that is a good idea.
Bonus Observation: Are you not shocked, shocked that after years of bad construction numbers and estimates on the South line, CATS’ operating numbers are similarly a mess?
Update: It occurs to me that these numbers are so confused that the Uptown paper of record is almost certain to run a “clarification” shortly. CATS cannot really mean to let this stand. Even the mysterious projection of 66 cents per ride would generate hundreds of dollars more a day given the 12,000 ride number we’ve been given.