Tom Rogan writes at National Review Online about Russia’s overt actions against U.S. interests in Syria.
On all fronts — diplomatic, military, covert-action, and economic — Russia is escalating against the United States in Syria. Timing is everything: There are three reasons that Russia is choosing this moment to act.
First off: January 20, 2017. Put simply, Vladimir Putin wants to maximize his control over Syria before America’s next president takes office. Remember, Putin is an obsessive analyst of U.S. politics. And like any good intelligence officer, his analysis shapes his evolving strategy. Consider, for example, how Putin praised Trump last December, just at the moment when it was likely to most please Trump. Or contemplate how the Russian president (in all likelihood) used WikiLeaks to release the hacked DNC e-mails immediately before the Democratic convention. Doing so maximized Clinton’s embarrassment. But now that Trump is plummeting in the polls, Putin, like American political analysts, is increasingly confident Clinton will win in November. …
… But there’s another fact. In late August 2016, Russia’s ability to increase its power in Syria is highly significant. Conducting air operations out of bases in Syria and Iran, and with Turkey now openly kneeling, Putin has today established domination over northern Syria. At the dead center of this effort are U.S.-supported rebel formations and U.S.-allied Special Operations forces. Putin designed this reality, the American military knows it exists, and President Obama pretends it isn’t real. …
… Third, Putin is strengthened by his new alliance with Turkey. President Erdogan has pledged subservience to Putin’s grand strategy, which is to displace U.S. global leadership. In return, the Russians are now attacking U.S.-aligned Kurdish forces to thank Erdogan. But keeping Erdogan subservient is key. For Putin, this means that Russia can disrupt U.S. efforts to support anti-Assad rebel forces. It also means that Putin can encourage Erdogan to turn a blind eye toward ISIS supply routes into Europe.