Elections & Public Integrity
Snapshot of the Day: Who Will the Dems Pick?
Courtesy of Real Clear Politics, here is a fascinating look at the betting odds for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Prediction market
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Re: Political futures and Florida
Following up this morning’s post, Republican futures now stand at: McCain: 67.0/71.4 (+13.6) Romney: 32.2/34.8 (-8.4) Giuliani: 2.0/2.9 (-4.0) The market (which should have better information as the day proceeded)…
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Political futures and Florida
Mid-morning trading of political futures concerning the results of the Florida primary today [Bid/Ask (Change)]: RepublicansMcCain: 53.0/58.0 (-2.0)Romney: 43.0/45.0 (+3.8)Giuliani: 1.6/3.9 (-4.3) This represents a fair amount of uncertainty in…
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Political futures and Iowa II
It’s early afternoon on the day of the Iowa caucuses, and here are the current Bid/Ask numbers in the political futures markets: Democrats Obama 65.3/69.0Clinton 20.0/24.0Edwards 13.6/18.7Richardson 0.1/0.5 Republicans Huckabee…
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Political futures market less confident of GOP retaining the Senate
Trading at InTrade (which I’ve cited often) is down to Bid/Ask of 58.0/64.5 cents. The Bid/Ask for GOP retaining control of the House is 11.0/11.1 cents. Using the 50-cent cutoff,…
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Post-Foley election futures
The Foley scandal appears to have significantly altered traders’ expectations of the election results. The elections futures market at Intrade.com right now (see Politics) has the Bid/Ask for GOP retaining…
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Political futures
At the election futures market at Intrade.com, the current Bid/Ask on the GOP retaining control of the U.S. House is at 45.1/45.9 cents. That is up about ten cents since…
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Edwards Beats Clinton
Johnny Ed doesn’t actually lead Hillary in polls, but Greg Mankiw uses Tradesports.com prices to determine that the hair has a better shot at winning the general election if he…
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Re: where they’ll go in November
This is as good a time as any to post this, in light of Joe’s post below. The picture is rather murky as viewed by traders in “election futures” as…
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Electoral futures watch
Bush to win Florida: 84.5/85.0 Bush to win Ohio: 55.0/56.0, basically back to where it was in the morning Bush to win election: 57.0/58.0 — this number is significantly up…