The latest Barron’s cover story from John Kimelman projects the impact of Donald Trump’s policies on the American economy.
The big question for investors is whether Trump’s pro-growth, tax-reform, and fiscal-stimulus policies will outweigh his protectionist views, says Matthew Peron, head of global equities at Northern Trust Asset Management. “This is the debate many on Wall Street will be having,” he says. “Right now, the positive case for economic growth is strong.”
Robert C. Doll, the chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, puts it even more succinctly: “Which Trump will prevail, the one that will do tax reform or the one that stomps on [free] trade?”
Among money managers, there is hope that the realities of the presidency and pressure from Congress will cause Trump to rein in his grandstanding against trading partners like China and Mexico, which he argues get an unfair deal at the expense of U.S.-based manufacturers and their workers. During the campaign, Trump called for a 45% tariff on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. “On trade, he may end up speaking loudly but carrying a small stick,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
AS A RULE, investment professionals are wary of discussing politics. They’re schooled in fundamental analysis, and earnings models don’t easily accommodate uncertain political scenarios. “Bottom-up stockpickers are paid not to worry about politics,” says Peron. “But as top-down strategists, you always need to take Washington policy into account. Since the global financial crisis, we are in a new world in which policy really does matter because of political intervention in the markets and a stringent regulatory regime.”
Peron says that a Trump presidency, with a Republican-controlled Congress, will usher in a “regime change” in Washington, as gridlock caused by divided government gives way to single-party rule. Trump’s stated goals of corporate and individual tax cuts, a big infrastructure-stimulus package, and the repatriation of corporate profits from overseas could, he says, “release some animal spirits into the economy.”
On the other hand, “protectionism is the one [issue] that we worry about the most,” Peron says. “Free trade is good for global growth, but [Trump] has taken a stand against that.”