by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
A humming economy, rising wages, promises kept, and forecasts that economic growth will continue have Republican pollsters saying President Trump is well-placed for reelection.
“Among presidents running for reelection since 1912, twelve of them in the two years running for reelection did not have a recession. All twelve were reelected,” Public Opinion Strategies’ Glen Bolger said. Based on current numbers, “you could not ask for a better kickoff for a presidential re-election campaign,” said Bill McInturff, also of Public Opinion Strategies said. Bolger and McInturff are both GOP pollsters.
Looking at the data, contrary to expectations, impeachment has yet to move the needle, said Bolger. Both national polls and those from battleground states have improved for Trump in recent weeks.
But veteran Republican political operative and President George W. Bush political svengali Karl Rove suggested that Trump’s victory is hardly a lock.
“It could come down to a handful of states, and as in 2016, a relatively small number of votes, and could potentially blow wide open,” Rove told the Washington Examiner. “But, I think that depends on who the Democrats nominate, how extreme are they, and how effective is the president at making the case that they are out of the mainstream.”
Rove said Trump’s campaign is covering its bases. “The best news for him is that his team is not taking it for granted,” Republican strategist Rove said. “They are not resting on the Ray Fair model that says the economy is so good that we are going to win easy. They recognize that these are unusual times, the country is deeply polarized, and the Democrats are energized.”