Republicans watching the presidential nomination contest have focused on the number 1,237. That’s how many delegates to the party’s national convention a candidate must win to secure the party’s support.

Front-runner Donald Trump has won the most pledged delegates during the primary and caucus process, but he has yet to reach 1,237. Jamie Weinstein of the Daily Caller explores Trump’s road to the magic number.

Will Donald Trump get the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot?

He better hope so. Because if it goes to a second ballot, it’s very unlikely Trump will be the Republican nominee. Here are four things to watch in order to judge whether Trump is on track to hit 1,237.

1.) Watch to see if the assumptions pan out

Trump is expected to win between 75 percent to over 90 percent of the 213 bound delegates up for grabs in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island on April 19 and 26. Of the 96 bound delegates in play on May 17 in Oregon, May 24 in Washington and June 7 in New Mexico, Trump should win 40 to 50 percent of those. He is also expected to win all or nearly all of the 34 delegates up for grabs in West Virginia on May 10 and all the 51 bound delegates in Winner-Take-All New Jersey on June 7. …

… 2.) Watch Indiana

Trump doesn’t have to win Indiana and most of its 57 delegates to hit 1,237, but a win there would makes the task much easier. …

… 3.) Stay up late on June 7 to see what happens in California

California is the most important state left on the primary calendar.

If Trump turns in an impressive performance and wins an overwhelming share of the state’s 172 delegates, he will almost certainly hit 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot. If he gets wiped out in California, it will be very hard for him to win the nomination.