James Capretta explains why long-term reductions in federal government spending will depend on more than just DOGE’s current actions.
An early indicator of what lies ahead is the lack of specificity around most of the claims of the planned cuts, or, when numbers and programs are cited, they involve small dollars relative to the size of the current hole or else will require agreement by Congress, which is uncertain at best.
The most immediate active arena is DOGE’s agency-by-agency demolition tour. It is still not clear if DOGE will transition into a useful re-engineering of how the government works with better information or remain a blunt instrument for dismantling select corners of the federal enterprise that the administration finds distasteful (a less enduring endeavor).
Unfortunately, the administration seems to be most enthused about the latter goal. An executive order signed on February 11 calls for a transition to a general policy across the government of one hire for every four departures combined with possible reductions in force in select agencies.
These moves could reduce costs but only if Congress gets on board. In 2025, there were expected to be about 2.3 million federal civilian workers before the DOGE-mandated reductions, with pay and benefits costing $476 billion. If the DOGE reforms push the total employment down by 100,000 workers, it might be possible to save $20 billion per year, which is significant. But the savings will only accrue to taxpayers if Congress agrees to reduce appropriations for the relevant agencies. Otherwise, spending that would have gone toward salaries can be redirected to other line items, such as grants and contracted services. With Democratic votes required to pass appropriation bills, the DOGE-initiated personnel cuts are unlikely to produce lasting savings.
The second active combat zone involves tariff policy, which is traditionally the province of Congress with some limited discretion for the president to protect the country from the unfair practices of trading partners.
