by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
If you are a Republican in a competitive congressional race this year, whether you invite President Trump to campaign for you may depend on whether you are running for House or Senate.
Republicans could easily lose the House if Democrats run the table in suburban districts where “The Resistance” is strong and the affinity of college-educated GOP-leaning voters for their party’s new populist branding is weak. Republicans are defending a 23-seat majority in the House; there are as many GOP-held districts that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Yet the Republicans’ position is much stronger in the Senate, where ten Democrats are running for re-election in states Trump carried and several of these red-state lawmakers are highly vulnerable. That gives Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., some insurance if the Democrats manage to pick off one or two of his 51 senators and possibly an opportunity to expand that narrow majority.
It’s as if the midterm elections are happening in two different worlds.