A contested Republican National Convention looks pretty likely, but Stephen Ohlemacher of the Associated Press reminds us that GOP front-runner Donald Trump still has a chance to lock up the presidential nomination before the festivities in Cleveland.
To all the political junkies yearning for a contested Republican convention this summer: not so fast.
It’s still possible for Donald Trump to clinch the nomination by the end of the primaries on June 7. His path is narrow and perilous. But it’s plausible and starts with a big victory Tuesday in his home state New York primary. …
… What comes next isn’t a prediction, but rather, a way in which Trump could win the nomination outright on June 7.
To be sure, Trump will have to start doing a lot better than he has so far. He gets that chance starting Tuesday, beginning the day with 744 delegates.
—
NEW YORK
There are 95 delegates at stake in the Empire State, and it’s important for Trump to win a big majority of them. It won’t be easy. …
… MAY
Five states hold contests in May, with a total of 199 delegates at stake: Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon and Washington State.
Indiana’s May 3 primary is important for Trump. The state awards 30 delegates to the statewide winner and three delegates to the winner of each congressional district, for a total of 57. If Trump can win the state and a majority of the congressional districts, he could collect 45 delegates.
West Virginia is another unique state in which voters elect 31 delegates in the May 10 primary. In West Virginia, however, the delegates will be listed on the ballot along with the presidential candidate they support. If Trump does well here, he could pick up 20 or more delegates. …
… JUNE 7
This could be Trump’s D-Day. Or his Waterloo.
Five states vote on June 7, with 303 delegates up for grabs. The biggest prize is California, along with New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana and New Mexico.
The only state Trump can afford to lose is New Mexico, which awards 24 delegates proportionally.
New Jersey, South Dakota and Montana are winner-take-all, with a total of 107 delegates.
