The hard copy of the N&O today included an article about a report issued by Mark Schneider of the American Institutes for Research which says that the states appropriate about $1.54 billion annually to educate college freshman who don’t return for their second year. North Carolina spent $63 million per year between 2003 and 2008 on freshman drop-outs, fifth highest in the country and among the highest per capita (For instance, California spends just shy of $100 million, with 4 times the population).

A quick thumbnail calculation, looking at the rate students drop out in later years, suggests that North Carolina is spending between $200 and $250 million per year to educate students who don’t complete their degrees (This doesn’t even consider students who get meaningless degrees).

Success in college is highly predictable. Savvy admissions counselors, particularly at the schools with the abysmal graduation rates (less than 45 percent), probably can identify who is going to make it and who is not with 80-90 percent accuracy. The failure to do so means that there is probably $50 to $100 million that is being squandered each year by the UNC system to keep enrollments high and to appease various political constituencies.