Weekly John Locke Foundation research division newsletter focusing on environmental issues.
The newsletter highlights relevant analysis done by the JLF and other think tanks as well as items in the news.
1. Global warming responsible for Sandy disaster — NOT!
Writing on Forbes.com, the Heartland Institute’s James Taylor counters the claims of scientific geniuses like Al Gore and Michael Bloomberg that Hurricane Sandy, in conjunction with a serious nor’easter, was essentially a man-caused disaster — that is that it was the result of human-induced global warming. But as he points out, if you turn to actual scientists you get a different story. And as Taylor notes, it’s not an alarmist vs. skeptic thing. Both sides agree, "nature happens." Taylor makes his point by quoting NOAAs Martin Hoerling, not a "denier," to use a favorite word of environmentalist demagogues:
As Hurricane Sandy prepared to strike the Northeast, climate scientists from alarmist and skeptical camps alike reported the storm had little if anything to do with global warming. Martin Hoerling, who chairs the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) climate variability research program, and who oversees NOAA’s Climate Scene Investigators, observed, "neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change, nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades."… Hoerling further explained, "In this case, the immediate cause is most likely little more that the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm. Both frequent the west Atlantic in October…nothing unusual with that. On rare occasions their timing is such as to result in an interaction which can lead to an extreme event along the eastern seaboard."
Taylor goes on to explain that:
Scientists, moreover, report a striking decline in hurricane activity during recent years. National Hurricane Center data show a dramatic decline in major hurricanes striking the United States during the past half century (see my recent column on this here). As the earth gradually recovers from the Little Ice Age (which lasted from approximately 1300 to 1900 A.D.), the frequency of major hurricane strikes is declining rather than increasing.
2. "Political Science" in state biology exam?
Our JLF Director of Research and K-12 Education Studies Terry Stoops called my attention to the following question from the North Carolina state biology exam put together by the Department of Public Instruction. This seems to be a sample question to be used for practice purposes. They call this, and other questions a "released test form." DPI states that:
Released test forms may be used by school systems to help acquaint students with valuable test taking strategies in summative assessment situations. These strategies may include managing time, following directions, understanding reading selections, and thinking through how to select the correct answer. Released test forms may be used by parents and the general public in gaining a greater understanding of how the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) for English Language Arts and Mathematics and the Essential Standards for Science are measured.
The question is clearly regarded as being representative of the kinds of questions that can be expected on the exam.
The biology question reads:
Which environmental concern is most associated with burning fossil fuels?
A global climate change
B pollution of ocean waters
C ozone layer destruction
D decrease in levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide
In case you didn’t guess, the "correct" answer is A.
From the perspective of science this question is nebulous at best and could be regarded as completely meaningless. First, there is no indication of what is meant by "associated with." Does it mean statistically correlated with? Does it mean rhetorically associated with? And by whom? Climatologists? Biologists (after all it is a biology exam)? The media? Their teachers?
And then there’s the answer "global climate change." Do they mean global warming? Climate change in general is certainly not statistically associated with burning fossil fuels. The climate has always changed and always will regardless of fossil fuel use. There have always been ice ages and warming periods. So I would hope that DPI is not suggesting that the climate changes because we burn fossil fuels. That’s not just wrong, but silly. On the other hand, if the test writers at DPI meant global warming, why didn’t they say so? But even then it is not at all clear that, if they were referring to statistical correlation, even global warming would be correct. As noted, there have been plenty of warming periods that have occurred well before the burning of fossil fuels, most recently the medieval warming period.
So the question arises, why would DPI include such a nonsensical question on its biology exam? Well, there are two possible answers. Either the question writers are ignorant and they do not understand the problems with the question, or they are not ignorant and they do. You can judge which is worse.
3. Ozone Report
We have come to the end of another ozone season. The 2012 ozone season began on April 1 and ended October 31. Each week during the ozone season this newsletter has reported how many, if any, high ozone days were experienced throughout the state during the previous week, where they were experienced, and how many had been recorded during the entire season to date.
All reported data was from the North Carolina Division of Air Quality, which is part of the state’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources.
During the two day period October 29th to 31st there were no reported high ozone readings on North Carolina’s ozone monitors. From the beginning of the ozone season there were 111 high ozone readings over 16 days on North Carolina monitors. The last week that any high ozone days were reported anywhere in the state was July 30-August 5.
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