John Hood discusses why Wake County is likely to be the focus for state Democrats in their quest to win seats in the legislature this fall. Analysis by two different groups — Civitas Institute and the N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation — show Democrats could pick up House and Senate seats now held by Republicans in Wake.
For example, two of the eight House districts Civitas considers to be swing seats are in Wake: District 41 (now held by Republican Tom Murry) and District 49 (now held by Republican Jim Fulghum). The only two true swing seats in the Senate by Civitas calculations are also in or include Wake County: District 15 (now held by Republican Neal Hunt) and District 18 (now held by Republican Chad Barefoot).
The NCFEF rankings produce Wake-heavy outcomes, as well. In the House, NCFEF includes District 41 and District 49 in a list of nine “competitive” seats across the state. One of its three competitive Senate seats is District 18.
If you expand the focus beyond true swing seats to include seats that lean Republican but can still be competitive for Democrats in a neutral or modestly favorable statewide electoral cycle, Civitas counts a total of 16 potential Democratic pickups in the House and five in the Senate. NCFEF counts 22 in the House and 11 in the Senate. Additional Wake seats that make the cut in both ranking systems include District 35 (Chris Malone), District 36 (Nelson Dollar), and District 40 (Marilyn Avila) in the House and District 17 (Tamara Barringer) in the Senate.
What all this means is that for Democrats, Wake County is probably their best potential investment of time and resources in 2014. A strong countywide turnout of the party base, aided by liberal-leaning media coverage and pro-Democratic interest groups in the capital city, could produce sizable gains in both chambers.
Fasten your seat belts, Wake County. This means both the Democrats and the Republicans will be pouring money and organizing into the area.
