It?s unlikely that the prophets of ?peak oil? will believe anything the CEO of ExxonMobil has to say, but George Will gives him a platform (no pun intended) in the latest Newsweek:
What about the ?peak oil? theory?that we have passed the point of maximum production? ?We are,? he says, ?very good at [predicting] demand? but regarding supply ?we have blown it every time.? He estimates that the world has used ?probably well less than half? the recoverable oil. In fact, he says, ?we?ll probably never exhaust the world?s supply? of oil because recovering the last, say, 10 percent would be so costly that alternative energy forms would make economic sense.
Herewith a recapitulation of the recalculations: In 1914, the Bureau of Mines said U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted by 1924. In 1939, the Interior Department said the world?s petroleum reserves would last 13 years. Oil fueled a global war and the postwar boom, and in 1951 Interior said the world had ? 13 years of proven reserves. In 1970, proven reserves were estimated at 612 billion barrels. By 2006, more than 767 billion barrels had been pumped and proven reserves were 1.2 trillion. In 1977, Jimmy Carter said mankind could ?use up? all the world?s proven reserves ?by the end of the next decade.? Since then, the world has consumed three times more oil than was in the proven reserves.
