by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
In the middle of their legislative orgy of socialistic giveaways and identity politics, Democrats might want to contemplate that their political priorities do not command the support of a majority of American voters. Moreover, the warnings on this front do not come from the right—they come from leftists themselves.
When an editorial columnist from the bastion of liberalism, The New York Times, writes that “Democrats are worried—very worried—about the future of the Hispanic vote,” you know something’s up. As it turns out, the radicalized “woke” among upper-class whites have done a good job alienating both African Americans and Hispanics from the Democratic coalition.
Times columnist Tom Edsall cited polling data from Public Opinion Strategies showing that Democratic support among self-described conservative Hispanics shifted by a whopping 50 points over eight years. Democrats won these voters by a 10-point margin in 2012, but lost them by 40 percentage points last year.
Conservative African Americans likewise showed migration away from Democrats. While the African-American vote moved away from Democrats on a smaller scale, the party’s dependence on winning the vast majority of Hispanic and African American votes to achieve electoral success makes any migration away from Democrats by minority populations a cause for alarm.
A separate interview with lefty data analyst David Shor reinforced the views in Edsall’s column. Shor argues that political polarization by educational status has in many ways supplanted polarization by race.
While the Democrat vote increased by seven percentage points among white college graduates in 2020, the party’s support among African Americans dropped by one to two percentage points, among Hispanics dropped by eight to nine points (and as much as 14-15 points in areas like South Florida), and among Asian Americans by roughly five points.