John Sexton writes at HotAir.com about Republicans’ chances of making major gains in the U.S. House of Representatives this year.
Last week Cook Political Report posted an analysis of the House midterm election which said “Both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022.” But the rest of the Cook piece argued that because of redistricting changes 2022 can’t possibly equal a tsunami like the one in 1994 when Republicans won 54 seats. There are simply not as many competitive seats in the House as there used to be. So the author ultimately predicted a more modest wave: …
… “As such, the more likely scenario for this fall is a GOP gain in the 15-25 seat range.”
As I said at the time, 25 seats on top of the 13 the GOP picked up in the 2020 House elections is still going to be devastating to Democrats and to the Biden administration whose agenda will be dead in the water for the rest of his term. But is it possible things could get even worse for Dems?
Today, columnist Henry Olson at the Washington Post argues that the conventional wisdom of the Cook Political Report could be underestimating the GOP’s chances. He suggests a swing of as many as 40 seats is still possible. …
… Where Cook Political Report had an eye on the gemeric congressional vote, which showed a 7 point shift toward the GOP, Olsen looks at the outcome in Virginia and New Jersey last year and suggests the actual swing was closer to 12.5 points. …
… President Biden is less popular now than he was last year. Instead of the eight-point net negative job approval rating, he’s currently underwater about 12 points. Factor that in and there could be another 17 “safe” Democratic seats that are actually up for grabs this year.
