Gallup has just come out with a new survey of likely voters in North Carolina that shows the Republican ticket leading the Democratic one in our state by 15 percentage points.
This finding should be greeted with great celebration by the state?s Republicans, who have worried about the president?s relatively weak numbers in the state and the potential for damage down in the ballot, such as in the competitive U.S. Senate race between Erskine Bowles and Richard Burr and the reelection bid of Gov. Mike Easley. However, my guess is that many thoughtful Republicans will see the finding as an aberration. Both public and private GOP polls have consistently shown a single-digit race for months, some with margins as small as four to five points. Gallup hasn?t done an oversampled polled in NC this year, as far as I know, and may have used a questionable screen for likely voters.
Indeed, Bush-Cheney leads Kerry-Edwards by only six points (49 percent to 43 percent) among registered voters. The margin jumps to 54 percent to 39 percent among ?likely? voters, which smells fishy to me.
