Interesting that Dennis Lockhart would say that out loud to the Chamber of Commerce in Chattanooga, but he did. Couple that with the expectation that we are about to get revised GDP numbers for 2Q that show a 1.5 percent contraction for the quarter, much worse than the 1 percent contraction originally reported, and it should be clear that nothing like a recovery is underway.
Instead, the pace of the contraction as slowed. We might break even in 3Q if back to school and work modes help kick September up a bit. But until we see that, it is foolish to assume we are back on a growth path.
