Why the change? And will it matter? The Raleigh News & Observer’s Andrew Carter provides some answers:
The move to a 30-second shot clock is a positive development for a sport that has taken a beating in recent years. Not only has it become expected that the game’s very best players will only stick around for a season, or maybe two, but ugly, low-scoring games have also become the norm.
Last season, teams averaged 67.6 points per game – tied for the lowest average during the past 50 years.
And:
Only nine teams averaged at least 70 possessions per game – down from 58 teams in 2005, according to data on kenpom.com.
Ken Pomeroy, the statistician and college basketball analyst who runs that website, has studied decreased scoring and pace trends for years. Rick Byrd, the chairman of the NCAA men’s basketball rules committee, sought Pomeroy’s insight into how a 30-second shot clock might affect the sport.
The short answer: It’s unlikely to have a dramatic impact.
Last season, Pomeroy analyzed the postseason tournaments, such as the NIT, that used an experimental 30-second shot clock. The results, which he wrote about on deadspin.com, surprised him.
“I was a little surprised that scoring didn’t increase more,” Pomeroy said during a recent phone interview. “I was kind of expecting more of a bump. It was definitely a surprise.”
Pomeroy adjusted for a variety of factors and concluded the following:
? A 30-second shot clock could be expected, on average, to result in an increase of about two possessions per game.
? Scoring could be expected to increase “by about two points per game when you control for everything.”
