Interesting claim advanced by one of the Perdue campaign’s strategists, writing in Politics Magazine. Thomas Mills, president of a Democratic direct mail and strategic consulting firm which worked with labor unions on behalf of the Perdue effort, claims that Pat McCrory was hurt by his support for light rail when rural voters had the issue framed for them by the Perdue campaign.

Mills writes:

As mayor of Charlotte, he had been in several scuffles with rural legislators over funding issues; he had supported diverting state transportation money from western North Carolina to fund light rail for Charlotte; he was too close to the Charlotte business community; and he took large sums of money from developers. On each question, the reaction of western voters was much stronger than the state as a whole, with at least 72 percent saying the issue discussed made them less likely to vote for McCrory.

What emerged was a picture of a big city mayor who had little understanding of the needs of rural citizens. While western North Carolinians are conservative, they are also ?ercely independent and proud of their humble lifestyle. They would have no use for a governor who put the interests of urban areas before the interests of rural values. … Throughout the campaign, McCrory touted his light rail initiative as an example of his progressive approach to governing. However, in the rural mountains, people equate transportation funds with money for better roads to give them easier access to economic centers. So the fourth mailer highlighted McCrory’s attempt to divert state transportation funds to pay for Charlotte light rail even though the service would have no impact in western North Carolina.

Did it work?

Mills obviously thinks so:

When the votes were counted, the success of the program exceeded our expectations. Not only did Perdue win the 11th District, she won by more than 20,000 votes, by far the largest margin of any non-incumbent Democrat in a statewide race, and the largest margin for a Democrat in an open gubernatorial race in a generation. Her margin in the target area was twice as high as her margin in the state as a whole. She also received more votes than any other non-incumbent Democrat— including 2,288 more than Kay Hagan and 11,775 more than Obama/Biden, even though 1,354 and 3,906 more people voted in the U.S. Senate and presidential races, respectively.

The race between Bev Perdue and Pat McCrory was the closest governor’s race in the country. In a year of Democratic change, in a state that is changing demographically, a Republican gubernatorial candidate ironically emerged as the candidate of change. While this twist helped make McCrory competitive in much of the state, in western North Carolina, traditional values trumped change and a highly targeted mail program told that story to the people who cared.

Couple this result with McCrory’s inability to carry Mecklenburg County, a turnout failure of GOP votes which still should haunt Republican strategists, and his campaign was doomed.

Bonus Observation: Wouldn’t have been ironic if the labor-backed mailings had sought to spook rural voters by noting that Charlotte’s bus drivers are all Teamsters?