by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
Ghoulish scold John Kerry, the White House’s climate hobgoblin, has repeatedly warned that the world is not on track to contain a 1.5-degree Celsius increase in global temperature above the pre-industrial level, and this means disaster is looming. Others have made the same point, and the media just goes along for the ride. Their predictions are worthless, though. We know this because the United Nations told us so.
The rock-solid, undeniable fact is that it’s impossible to make long-term climate predictions, because our climate is ever changing and volatile. It says so in the Third Assessment Report from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
And it has said this since 2001, when that report was put together.
Yet Kerry and his ilk, and we use that term with with greatest contempt we can muster, continue to tell us they can predict the global temperature of the future and it’s going to burn us all.
The alarmists point to the sentence that follows, which says, “Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions.” They then claim that damning passage is taken out of context.
So now there it is in context. Have we misrepresented the IPCC’s point? Not at all. This supposedly probative sentence does not contradict the uncertainty expressed in the previous sentence, it corroborates it. Relying on “probability” and the “possible” does not inspire confidence, especially in light of previous predictions’ failures. The “experts” can do no better than guess.
Not only is the claim that the future climate can be accurately predicted a load of bunk, the 1.5 degree threshold, which most alarmists say is inevitable, is blarney, as well.