Elections are full of data, and people are naturally inclined to seek to draw inferences from them. Already a person at the University of Pennsylvania has fallen prey to a hoax that purported to show that each state with the average IQ of its populace and their choice for president . Of course, when the states’ IQ averages were ranked in descending order, the data showed John Kerry “clearly” winning the high-IQ states, whereas the low-IQ states voted for Bush ? all blue up top, all red below.
To the dupe’s credit, he admitted the hoax and posted data from The Economist showing state’s math scores, percentage of bachelor’s degree holders, and selection of Bush or Gore (which, of course, showed mixed results).
Here’s an exercise in just how silly one can get in creating illusions of causation via correlation. Look at the map of states that have Bojangle’s restaurants: Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee. Mostly all Bush states, except for New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. In fact, according to statewide vote counts from CNN, “Bojangle’s states” went for Bush 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent.
Not all those state, however, have had Bojangle’s restaurants long enough to allow for a Bojangle’s effect to take place. Therefore, I restricted my data to only those states with three or more established Bojangle’s restaurants. New York has four Bojangle’s restaurants, but three are new. Pennsylvania has only two established Bojangle’s restaurants. All of Maryland’s are new. Also, Missouri and Arkansas have only one, new Bojangle’s restaurant apiece.
With the data restricted to allow for a Bojangle’s effect, I found that states with a Bojangle’s supported Bush over Kerry by a wide margin ? 56.8 percent to 43.2 percent. Were one to take correlation equal to causation, then one would surmise thus: Clearly, when voters have the opportunity to savor those incredible, mouth-watering chicken and biscuits, and oh! those seasoned fries, they’re far less likely to swallow whatever stale hokum some Nanny-State pol is pushing.
