I don’t want to pick on the Observer’s Tim Funk for reporting the conventional wisdom, but it is just that it is so unwise. Funk says Democrats think that Tim Dunn can do to Rep. Robin Hayes what Paul Hackett almost did to Republican Jean Schmidt in Ohio’s 2nd district the other week. Recall that the former Marine and Iraq vet Hackett narrowly lost to Schmidt in a special House election in a solidly GOP district.
Tim Dunn is a Marine reservist and Iraq vet, so the thinking goes that he can duplicate Hackett’s success with GOP-leaning voters uneasy about the war Iraq. Fair enough, except that it seems clear that Schmidt lost votes not because of Iraq, but because of her vote for a sales tax hike as a state lawmaker and her connections to GOP governor Robert Taft and his mushrooming ethics scandal. (Don’t ask, it involves some dope “investing” state money in rare coins.)
In the Hackett-Schmidt race, Democrats ran ads reminding voters of her vote for the tax hike. Human Events’ John Gizzi, who absolutely lives for this stuff, notes that:
In their final debate July 26, Hackett mentioned Taft’s name in the same sentence with Schmidt 12 times and used the term “rubber stamp” seven times. The Hackett campaign’s two district-wide mailings linked Schmidt to Taft and taxes.
Plus late in the campaign it turned out that one of Schmidt’s contributors had ties to the funny money biz Columbus. To say the least, Schmidt had some pretty unique vulnerabilities that are hard to transfer to other races. Besides, it is almost always a mistake to assume that national issues move voters in House races more than more localized concerns, especially taxes and ethics.
This does not mean that Hayes is home free or that his vote for CAFTA, the right vote I think, will not cost him some votes. But Dunn, as a trial lawyer, has some vulnerabilities too. Check back in a few months to see how it all plays out.
