JLF head John Hood offers up an analysis of the 2016 U.S. Senate here in North Carolina, which will see Republican incumbent Richard Burr taking on a TBD Democratic challenger. There’s been a lot of speculation as to which Democrat or Democrats may run. A sample:
The problem the [Democratic Party] has in the U.S. Senate race, however, is that its most capable candidates will probably opt to run for something else. Attorney General Roy Cooper will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee to challenge Gov. Pat McCrory. I suspect that State Treasurer Janet Cowell, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (Burr’s foe in 2010), Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin, and key Democrats in the state house and senate will be loathe to pass up what are good reelection prospects in order to take on an incumbent senator.
It would be one thing if 2016 promised to be a Democratic wave akin to 2006 or 2008. Perhaps later this year, the wind will seem to be blowing that way — and many North Carolina Democrats will feel emboldened to unfurl their sails and see how far it can take them. But I tend to doubt it.
And
Again, assuming no radical change of the political fortunes of President Obama and his party, I think Burr has to be the favorite in his 2016 duel — regardless of who ends up walking off the paces with him. The marquee race of the year will be for governor, not U.S. Senate.
You can read John’s column in its entirety here.
