The latest National Review contains an edited version of a letter to the editor I submitted last month. The edited version does not change the thrust of my argument, but the editor did excise the one quip I enjoyed most.
Here?s the letter as originally submitted:
I nodded in agreement with Jay Cost’s article contrasting the first years of the Reagan and Obama administrations (“Rowing Upstream,” March 22). Mr. Cost identifies key differences that helped explain why the 40th president succeeded where the 44th president did not. I was surprised, though, that the article made no mention of a huge factor in Reagan?s first-year success: He survived an assassination attempt. While the shooting did not wipe out Democratic opposition, popular support for the recovering Reagan certainly blunted his foes? political weapons. Despite the 1981 shooting?s impact on future political events, one suspects this is an aspect of the Reagan presidency that President Obama hopes never to emulate.
Jay Cost replied in NR that Gallup polls suggest Reagan?s ?ten-point bounce? in job approval polls after the assassination attempt disappeared long before he signed the Economic Recovery Tax Act. In other words, the shooting had little impact on Reagan?s ability to win support for his tax cut.
I have no reason to dispute that data. It would have been nice to read that information in the original article, even if the author had cited it only to shoot the assassination attempt down (pun intended) as a potential factor influencing Reagan?s success.
Moreover, the Gallup data cannot tell us how vigorously Reagan?s opponents would have fought him on the tax reform issue had the shooting never happened. We?ve seen plenty of examples over the years of legislation and nominations killed after months of withering criticism. Had the assassination attempt not ?blunted his foes? political weapons? ? at least temporarily ? Reagan?s tax-cutting journey might have traveled along a different, more treacherous path.
As noted at the top of the letter, though, I agreed with the thrust of Jay Cost?s article, which spelled out factors that helped explain differences between Reagan?s successful first year and Obama?s first-year struggles.
If the history of Reagan?s opening year in office interests you, check out Steven Hayward?s Age of Reagan:
