Tucker Mitchell walks through the basic math underlying the funding plans for the $300 million North commuter rail line and finds plenty of “ifs” along the way.

And that is just taking CATS’ claims at face value, that all they need is about $76 million in tax increment financing; that the train will attract $5.2 billion worth of development; that they’ll be plenty of new tax revenue to pay for it all.

As we’ve noted before, CATS has turned to Cherokee Investment Partners for help making the TIF plan work. Triangle-based Cherokee has done these deals all over the country, talking local and state governments into underwriting grand development plans with future property tax dollars.

And one such deal continues to unravel in New Jersey. Yesterday a Cherokee subsidiary planning to build golf courses on top of Meadowlands landfills refused to hand over $16 million to the state as required by the state AG.

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) is floating the idea of replacing Cherokee in the $500 million project.

And I doubt a single official on the Metropolitan Transit Commission has ever heard of any of this.