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Have recent education reform measures approved by the N.C. General Assembly discouraged college students in our state from entering the teaching profession?  Some folks seem to think so.  In this week’s CommenTerry, I take a closer look at the issue.

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CommenTerry

According to a recent WRAL report, enrollment in undergraduate and graduate teaching programs in the UNC System has dropped nearly 18 percent since 2010. 

In response to these findings, a handful of pundits suggested that Republican legislators played a role in discouraging students from entering the teaching profession.  Michael Maher, assistant dean of the College of Education at N.C. State and frequent critic of Republican legislators, blamed "a really negative climate around teaching and teachers right now." UNC officials and others claim that state legislators have created this negative climate by "underfunding" and disrespecting public schools.  N.C. Public School Forum President and Executive Director Keith Poston declared that that the General Assembly needed to make a "sustained commitment" to the teaching profession in order to avert "a very real teacher shortage crisis on the horizon."

But how much blame does the Republican majority in the N.C. General Assembly deserve for the drop in education students?  The issue is not as cut-and-dry as some would have you believe.

First, attempts to assign blame to one possible factor are based mostly on speculation and anecdote.  We have no empirical research that outlines the many factors that students consider when they choose a major at a UNC System institution. 

Indeed, research studies have failed to identify the combination of factors that college students use to select a major. Higher education researchers have focused on the issue of anticipated earnings, reasoning that college students select a major based on their perceived ability to earn an income both in the short- and long-term.  Nevertheless, a number of studies confirm college students do not have consistent access to reliable wage information and interpret the data inconsistently or inaccurately when they do. 

Moreover, a focus on initial or lifetime wages ignores other critical factors, such as the attitudes, aptitudes, and gender roles.  Each affects the selection of college major in different ways.  Obviously, one’s attitudes toward a discipline may be informed by the state and national political environment (to the extent that the student is aware of it), but it is more likely the attitudes are acquired over the 17 or more years prior to enrollment.  In addition, aptitudes and ideas about gender roles may limit the choice of major.  Students who have struggled in their math courses will typically avoid majoring in engineering or the hard sciences.  Likewise, a male student may choose to avoid nursing or elementary education because they are female-dominated fields.

Second, we should be attentive to enrollment trends generally.  According to the WRAL report, of the 14 UNC institutions that offer undergraduate or graduate education degrees, Elizabeth City State, UNC-Asheville, and Winston-Salem State had the largest percentage declines in education school enrollment.  Unfortunately, the report failed to mention that some of the drop could be attributed to the fact that all three had lower undergraduate and graduate student enrollment in 2013 than they did in 2010.  If total enrollment drops, then there is a good chance that education school enrollment will fall as well.

Third, North Carolina is following a national trend (See Facts and Stats below).  According to U.S. Department of Education data for public and private universities, traditional teacher education enrollment fell 9 percent nationwide between 2010 and 2013.  In fact, 28 states and the District of Columbia lost teacher education students over the past three years.  The states with the largest declines in enrollment include high teacher salary states such as California and Illinois, and lower salary states including Oklahoma and Alabama, controlled by both Democrats and Republicans. 

In the Southeast, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and South Carolina had larger education school enrollment drops than North Carolina.

The lesson here is that correlation is not the same as causation.  Just because Republicans maintain a majority in both chambers of the N.C. General Assembly does not mean that they are necessarily the primary cause of changes that occur during their tenure.  Without a doubt, state-level legislation and policy plays a key role in the health of our public institutions, but so do many other factors that fall outside of the authority and control of government.

Facts and Stats

Enrollment in traditional teacher education programs, 2010-2013

State

Total Enrollment,
2010

Total Enrollment, 2013

Enrollment Change

Percentage Change

Alabama

7,012

5,036

-1,976

-28%

Alaska

1,331

2,088

757

57%

Arizona

23,330

42,297

18,967

81%

Arkansas

7,067

5,668

-1,399

-20%

California

33,426

23,838

-9,588

-29%

Colorado

9,402

9,470

68

1%

Connecticut

5,207

5,423

216

4%

Delaware

3,440

3,418

-22

-1%

District of Columbia

1,564

828

-736

-47%

Florida

14,106

16,613

2,507

18%

Georgia

16,565

11,981

-4,584

-28%

Hawaii

929

1,017

88

9%

Idaho

7,799

6,755

-1,044

-13%

Illinois

33,244

25,051

-8,193

-25%

Indiana

16,681

11,786

-4,895

-29%

Iowa

9,238

9,303

65

1%

Kansas

6,632

6,009

-623

-9%

Kentucky

7,222

11,075

3,853

53%

Louisiana

7,844

3,309

-4,535

-58%

Maine

2,713

2,558

-155

-6%

Maryland

8,407

8,403

-4

0%

Massachusetts

15,396

16,080

684

4%

Michigan

23,359

18,424

-4,935

-21%

Minnesota

12,123

8,720

-3,403

-28%

Mississippi

3,281

3,422

141

4%

Missouri

10,111

11,203

1,092

11%

Montana

2,552

3,015

463

18%

Nebraska

6,216

4,301

-1,915

-31%

Nevada

4,638

3,072

-1,566

-34%

New Hampshire

1,522

2,585

1,063

70%

New Jersey

18,038

17,720

-318

-2%

New Mexico

4,475

4,570

95

2%

New York

73,515

58,023

-15,492

-21%

North Carolina

16,902

13,470

-3,432

-20%

North Dakota

1,843

1,710

-133

-7%

Ohio

28,548

29,291

743

3%

Oklahoma

23,631

7,328

-16,303

-69%

Oregon

4,203

3,416

-787

-19%

Pennsylvania

38,140

33,704

-4,436

-12%

Rhode Island

2,837

2,337

-500

-18%

South Carolina

8,395

6,570

-1,825

-22%

South Dakota

2,315

2,882

567

24%

Tennessee

11,017

9,371

-1,646

-15%

Texas

30,865

32,425

1,560

5%

Utah

4,581

9,246

4,665

102%

Vermont

1,980

1,577

-403

-20%

Virginia

12,954

13,180

226

2%

Washington

4,945

5,584

639

13%

West Virginia

4,639

4,456

-183

-4%

Wisconsin

11,841

10,714

-1,127

-10%

Wyoming

1,089

1,278

189

17%

TOTAL

609,110

551,600

57,510

-9%

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Title II Reports for 2010 and 2013

Acronym of the Week

UNC — University of North Carolina

Quote of the Week

"Empirical evidence suggests that anticipated future earnings affect choice of major, but research also suggests that the influence of future earnings on college major decisions may be quite small…"

– Mark C. Long, Dan Goldhaber, And Nick Huntington-Klein, "Do Students’ College Major Choices Respond to Changes in Wages?" National Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research, January 2014.

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