The first statewide polls after the national conventions has just come out, from Survey USA/WTVD, and it shows a large increase in GOP voter preference:
? John McCain leads Barack Obama 58-38 in this new NC sample of 671 likely voters.
? Elizabeth Dole leads Kay Hagan 48-40.
? Pat McCrory leads Beverly Perdue 49-41.
More tomorrow. Right off the bat, I’d say this reflects the obvious surge in Republican enthusiasm (showing up in the likely voter screen) and some unaffiliateds and soft Rs coming back to the GOP fold after a difficult (and understandable) separation. Should not be taken as a prediction of what things will look like later in the month, when the convention bounce (probably) recedes.
