I honestly do not completely understand the numbers CATS released for the North line this morning. That’s why I am throwing it open to other eyeballs to help figure it out.
However, a common sense approach suggests that the price tag just jumped by over one-third.
Before today, if anyone had asked about the cost of the North line I would have pointed them to CATS’ Destination 2030 guide. Adopted after the Metro Transit Commission approved the 2030 plan in mid-November, that represented the basic outline of what CATS intended to do.
In its description of the North, or Purple line, CATS said the cost of Phase I would be $261 million. A shorter line that stopped at Davidson would cost $246 million. But as CATS is beyond eager to make it to Mt. Mourne provided Mooresville kicks in $18 million and has not dropped the idea, I’ve always used the $261 million number.
Per CATS in Destination 2030:
The first phase will provide a modest level of rush hour and off-peak service between Huntersville, Cornelius, Davidson, Mount Mourne and Uptown Charlotte. The second phase is scheduled to add increased service levels by 2019.
Currently, Phase 1 is projected to cost $261 million, and Phase 2 is estimated at $112 million.
The “increased service” bit of Phase II in 2019 is important. Without that CATS cannot, by definition, reach the 4600 daily riders it projected for the North line by 2030. That also makes the final cost of the line $373 million with Phase II added.
But the plan released today drops all talk of Phase II. In fact, it drops all talk of ridership. Period.
What does it add? How about putting a number on previously undefined “catalyst” and transit oriented development projects needed to “support rail service.” That number is $97 million.
What this tells me is that CATS has dropped all pretense of this thing having anything at all to do with moving people from Point A to Point B.
With the feds out of the picture, they’ve punted ridership to the side and, with the help of Cherokee Investment Partners, focused on making the tax increment financing numbers work. You make the numbers work by projecting tremendous future property tax revenues from the train — so great that the revenue can pay off the debt on both the rail project and TOD. Profit.
On cue, the Northern mayors are so giddy at the prospect of the added loot they cannot think straight. No one batted an eye at the cost of the project jumping by 37 percent while service levels declined. The mayors just want some train at any price.
And that is really what I think just happened — higher cost for less service.
If I am right, the taxpayers of Mecklenburg are about to be stuck with a $358 million commuter rail line that will move something like 2000 to 2500 riders a day. Maybe I missed something or am jumping to conclusions, but that is what it smells like to me.
We need a new plan.
Update: WBTV’s Tom Roussey reported at 11pm that, yes, the $97 million is new money and ups the total cost of the all the infrastructure for the project to $358 million.
And I still say that is just the initial phase. To get to 4600 riders a day, CATS wants taxpayers to spend $470 million.
Unreal.
