The Greenboro News & Record has decided
that peak oil is a problem–we are running out of oil that we can
feasibly extract and therefore we need to start dealing with it
now. Their argument is “bolstered”, at least from their
perspective, by an article one of their reporters did on peak oil.
I was interviewed for the article, and despite the fact that it seemed
the reporter already made up her mind on peak oil regardless of what I
said, I gave her tons of information to discount the peak oil
theory. When all was said and done, she ignored all of it and
strung together some random quotes of mine without using mine or anyone
else’s thoughts about the peak oil theory, except the believers.
Here is what the paper ignored and what should be remembered about peak oil:
1) “A peak in world oil production is decades away …not years away.” Who said this? The United States Energy Information Administration in 2005.
2) On page three of this presentation, the EIA highlights just some of the many flawed predictions about peak oil.
3) It is a bit difficult to argue there is a peak oil problem when so much oil is not even permitted to be developed:
From
the United States Bureau of Land Management: ?America has abundant
energy resources,? said Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Land
and Minerals Management C. Stephen Allred. ?However, for a variety of
reasons, many of these resources are not available for development. At
a time when energy prices have reached record levels and Americans are
feeling the impact, we must find ways to develop those key energy
resources that are available to us right here at home, on our public
lands.?
Onshore Land
“All onshore Federal lands throughout the U.S. believed to have energy
potential are included in this latest study. These public lands
are estimated to contain 31 billion barrels of oil….The study found
that in the inventory areas just 8 percent of onshore Federal oil and
10 percent of onshore Federal gas are accessible under standard lease
terms.” – BLM
“The Green River Formation, which
covers parts of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, has the largest known oil
shale deposits in the world, holding from 1.5 to 1.8 trillion barrels
of oil. Of that, roughly 800 billion barrels are recoverable ? more
than triple Saudi Arabia?s proven oil reserves. Present U.S. demand for
petroleum products is about 20 million barrels per day, so 800 billion
barrels would last for more than 400 years if oil shale could be used
to meet a quarter of that demand.” – From the Rand Corporation
Offshore Oil
The Department of the Interior estimates that there is about 18 billion barrels worth of oil on the Outer Continental Shelf.
According to the Institute for Energy Research, “97 percent of Federal offshore areas are not leased.”
4) Peak oil theorists fail to account for significant advances
in technology and innovation when coming to extracting oil.
They also don’t take into account how much more efficient we are in our
use of oil. This EIA chart
shows how U.S. consumption of petroleum and natural gas per real dollar
of GDP has free-fallen from 1973-2007. In 1973, it was 13,210
BTUs per dollar, and in 2007, it was only 5,490 BTUs per dollar.
__
Could we run out of oil anytime soon? No, but if we block ourselves
from extracting oil, then we do make it more likely that oil supply will become a bigger problem. If we permit oil
exploration and development then there’s no reason why we are going to
reach some peak anytime soon.
Our society has moved away from many different energy sources, such as
whale oil. Why? Because we found out the many benefits of
other energy sources, including petroleum. If today we did reach
some peak level of production, then we would seek new alternatives to
oil (as we already are) and find ways to more efficienctly use oil (as we
already are).
There isn’t a need for drastic governmental actions as some may
call for due to a non-existent problem. We can pay extra for
ineffective “know-it-all” government programs to restrict oil
usage and thereby reduce the wealth and well-being of Americans, or we
can ensure that energy costs are low, that we develop policies
that are conducive to innovation, and we stop shooting ourselves in the
foot by restricting oil supply.
HT: Geoff Lawrence
