Jim Geraghty of National Review Online explains why the Russian invasion of Ukraine reminds him of a fable.
There is something bizarre and unnerving to read reports of Kremlin insiders recognizing that the invasion of Ukraine is a catastrophic mistake, like this one from Bloomberg News …
“Almost eight weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, with military losses mounting and Russia facing unprecedented international isolation, a small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning his decision to go to war.” …
… and then to read reports of Russia intensifying its campaign in eastern Ukraine, with the expectation that assaults and barrages will get worse as we get closer to Russia’s May 9 Victory Day holiday.
It is the greatest case of “The Emperor’s New Clothes” of all time. Apparently everyone in Russia with a clear or reliable view of the war can see that it is a disaster, that it is costing the Russian military thousands of lives, that it is wrecking the Russian economy and will impoverish millions, that it is unifying and strengthening NATO and may well expand the alliance, that it is pouring gasoline on the fire of Ukrainian nationalism, that it is turning Volodymyr Zelensky into a legend, and that it is making Russians look like ill-informed, incompetent brutes on the world stage. Anyone with eyes and access to reliable information can see that a sweeping victory is not just around the corner, and that Russia’s best-case scenario is a long, difficult, bloody slog that consolidates some gains in eastern Ukraine. If the aspirations of conquering Kyiv or splitting Ukraine down the middle were ever realistic, they are no longer plausible scenarios.
Apparently many Russians can see this, but they cannot stop the war. The Russian military can see it. The Russian intelligence agencies can see it. The oligarchs can probably see it.
