Jon,
Thanks for the response to my original prediction. Your comments suggest to me that I failed to flesh out the scenarios I outlined.
The story line you mention could come into play if Mitt Romney shows a likelihood of winning the Republican nomination. Your story line will almost certainly come into play if Romney wins the nomination. Expect stories about bigamy, Jesus in the Midwest, and any other angle that might scare people into voting against Romney. If Romney wins the nomination but goes on to lose the general election, I expect the media accounts will blame his conservative stances or his “flip-flops,” not his religious beliefs.
In contrast to the media’s attempts to spike a viable presidential campaign, my original post was designed to cover election post mortem stories. Once Obama and/or Clinton loses, stories will almost certainly surface to explain the loss in racial or gender terms. (The one case which I failed to note in the original predicton involves a successful joint Clinton-Obama [or Obama-Clinton] ticket. If they join forces and win, there will be no need to find excuses for the loss.)
The flip side of my prediction is the associated story line. Depending on the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee, we will likely see one of the following story lines:
- Americans have a chance to show they have “progressed” to the point that they would accept a (black/woman) president.
The ultimate point of both of my messages is that gender and race will play disproportionate roles in the coverage of a Clinton or Obama general election campaign. People who vote against those candidates will not be rejecting their policy positions; the voters instead will be rejecting an entire race or gender.
We know this is rubbish, but the stories are on the way.
