Jon — Something doesn’t compute with your conspiracy theory. Okay, by my count five Republican Senators voted against the cloture motion. One can be excused entirely on procedural grounds: Under Senate rules only a member voting in the majority can call for another vote. Anticipating defeat, Leader Frist voted against the motion in order to preserve his tactical options. With this explanation, there is no need to comment on Frist’s commitment to conservatism. Though he may aspire to the White House, he has been a steadfast ally of the Administration and would not profit from this bill’s defeat.
However, the other four don’t all line up with the idea of nefarious motivation. Sure, perhaps Senator Hagel sees this vote as a way to move to the center for a future presidential run. His “independence” has often been a thorn in the side of the Administration and Senate leadership. Sure, Senator Murkowski is not nearly as conservative as the Senator Murkowski who she replaced, but there is no indication of bad motive.
The other two however should really drain the conspiratorial juices. Senator Craig and Senator Sununu are A-Listers for the conservative cause. The “moderate allies” that the GOP harbors in the Senate are real, but they do not include Craig or Sununu among their number. I’m not saying their votes were not strategic or overtly political. In fact, I don’t know their motives or stated objections to the Patriot Act (and the motion for cloture). But, time and again Craig and Sununu are on the right side of issues.
I’m not ruling your conspiracy out. But I think you ask too much of Senate Democrats — by my observation, recent history suggests that long-term strategy is not a strong suit — and too little of Craig and Sununu.