Right after the May primary, I wrote a column challenging the notion that North Carolina was experiencing an unprecedented surge of voter registration. Citing past election cycles, I observed that the registration gain so far in the 2008 trend was hardly exceptional, and indeed was below the average depending on how you measured it.
?The per-month growth rate would have to quicken quite a lot … to reach that 12 percent historical average, which would translate to 370,000 additional registrations between now and November,? I wrote. ?Does that sound likely??
Well, we have a month of data since the primary, and so far voter registrations haven’t picked up enough to generate an historic gain. From the primary through June 7, registrations grew by about 10,600. That’s far less than the 62,000 registrations a month necessary to match the average percentage gain in North Carolina voters. However, it’s fair to point out that the pace of registration will likely quicken in September and October as the two party conventions close, media coverage ramps up, and voter-registration drives crank up.
