Jim Geraghty of National Review Online explores the latest polling news for President Biden.
The latest national ABC News/Ipsos poll has Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden by two percentage points, with or without third-party and independent options. Considering how lousy the polls have been for Biden for much of this year, Democrats might feel like things are improving.
And yes, among respondents identified as living in swing states –Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina*, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden narrowly leads, 46 percent to 45 percent.
But the overall picture darkens — a lot — when you read down to the sixth paragraph:
That said, a chief question raised by the survey is why Biden is competitive at all, given his substantial disadvantages. Just 35 percent of Americans approve of his job performance, with 57 percent disapproving; that’s 2 points from his career low in approval in January and well below the level historically associated with reelection. Forty-three percent say they’ve gotten worse off financially under his presidency. An overwhelming 81 percent say he’s too old for another term. Trump easily outpoints him in perceived mental sharpness and physical health.
Trump, moreover, leads in trust to handle six of 10 issues tested in the survey, with Biden ahead in just two. That includes, for Trump, the three most-cited issues in importance — the economy, on which he has a 14-point advantage; inflation, again 14 points; and crime and safety, 8 points. He tops out with a 17-point lead in trust to handle immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border and leads by 8 points in trust to handle the war between Israel and Hamas and 7 points on “America’s standing in the world.” …
… For a long while, lots of political analysts, including myself, have seen suburban women as a key demographic where Trump is weaker than the average Republican. In this survey, suburban women split evenly for Trump and Biden, 45 percent each.
