by Jon Sanders
Director of the Center for Food, Power, and Life, Research Editor | John Locke Foundation
Image source: Screenshot from the Oct. 1 WRAL news story about the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s football win over Duke University. Despite WRAL warnings that college football games were “risk guaranteed” events, fans packed the stadium.
This past week nearly 99.5% of people in NC posed no threat of passing along COVID-19 to anyone, and over five out of six (83.5%) adult North Carolinians are estimated to have either vaccine-induced or natural immunity.
Here is the NC Threat-Free Index for the week ending October 4 (click here for an explanation of the NC Threat-Free Index):
For October 4, the estimate is now over five-sixths (83.5%) of adult North Carolinians with immunity (vaccine-induced immunity and natural immunity), using CDC estimates of actual infections and DHHS estimates of current vaccinations and the formula outlined here. (By comparison, CDC research released September 2 estimated combined infection- and vaccination-induced SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence for the Central and Western North Carolina Region at 81.2%(79.3%–82.9%; see Supplement 4).)
Recall that Cooper’s standard of immunity was two-thirds (66.7%) of adult North Carolinians partially vaccinated. This standard had no regard whatsoever for natural immunity from actual infection, even though that is the stronger and more durable immunity. Vaccination is a means, not the end — the goal is herd immunity. That standard has been eclipsed: 68% of adult North Carolinians are partially vaccinated.
Furthermore, including vaccinated and naturally immune children (18 and under) into the mix, North Carolina is at 81.3% immunity.