Purportedly, the nation is in economic recovery, and has been for a year or so. Regardless, the aftermath, shock waves, etc. from the Bush Administration leave unemployment and foreclosure rates high. The word on the street is that people are still out of work and afraid of pending foreclosures.
Perplexing is the financial analysts’ conclusion that a quarter-cent sales tax would raise $6-7 million annually for capital improvements at AB Tech. At that rate, only the “critical needs” on the college’s master plan would be met.
Speaking before the commissioners, Dr. David White explained the tax would only cost the average guy in Buncombe County $2.50 a month. The tax did not apply to groceries, gas, or mortgages. But does the average guy in Buncombe County, who is typically characterized as a service-industry worker, have $1000 to spend on things other than bills, gas, and groceries?
According to the US Census Bureau, the population in Buncombe County is just over 230,000. 20.8% are children, and 15.9% are retired. The unemployment rate has been between 7.4 and 7.9%. Supposing all retirees live comfortably, and those elderly people we see buying one banana and a box of saltines in the discount grocery store do not exist, we can assume 28% of the population is not working. Since the population is expected to grow, we can put it conservatively at 250,000 and assume a near-term work force of 180,000.
If each of these people buys $1000 in discretionary items a month, the county will collect $450,000. Tourist spending is expected to make up the remainder.
Per capita income is $20,384. The median house price a couple years ago was $208,000. According to HUD data referenced in a November 2009 report (p. 28), fair-market rents listed for one- and two-bedroom apartments were $604 and $690, respectively. A lot of people out in the county still drive cars and make payments on them. They have cell phones and computers. Several have been complaining about their $100+ utility bills last month. Assuming very conservatively a combined monthly car payment and auto maintenance expense of $200, a super-duper bundle rate of all utilities for $100, a two-person household, and an income tax rate of about 30% (15% federal, 6-7.75% state, and 7.65% FICA); the average household of two working parents and a third of a child would have $1000 left a month after gas and groceries.
But I made a lot of wild assumptions – like the average family will spend $40 a week on groceries. I also assumed talk of rising gas and food prices was Tea Party propaganda. Smaller households will pay higher rents per person, and larger households will have more mouths to feed. There is usually a tradeoff between car payments and maintenance costs, and not everybody is an auto mechanic. Furthermore, the tourism industry has reportedly been sagging.
In sum, it appears if the economic recovery doesn’t cause more personal setbacks for the average guy, the county won’t have to make up more taxes to pay for AB Tech’s buildings.
