Weekly John Locke Foundation research division newsletter focusing on environmental issues.
This newsletter highlights relevant analysis done by the JLF and other think tanks as well as items in the news.
1. Where has all the smog gone? 2013 best year on record
It is almost certain that no one reading this has turned on his local TV news any morning this year and heard a warning from the weather(man)(woman)(person) proclaiming that it is predicted to be a "code orange" or "code red" ozone day, or that "there is a smog alert" and people with asthma or other lung related ailments should stay inside. Code orange and code red are categories established by the federal Environmental Protection Agency for levels of ozone that exceed the federal maximum standard for what the EPA deems to be healthy air quality.
As I have been reporting in this newsletter since July, North Carolina has been on track to have the fewest number of ozone monitor readings that exceed federal standards this year of any year on record. There was one "exceedence" or code orange day registered on one monitor during the entire 2013 ozone season. By comparison, last year there were a total of 111 code orange monitor readings. In 2008 there were 197. Since then there has only been one year that came close to this year’s low, and that was 2009 with 13. The bar graph below shows data for the last 6 years.
What is probably the most significant factor in explaining this year’s performance is the weather. This summer was a relatively cool one. Ozone formation is most likely to occur in the presence of heat and intense sunlight. Despite explanations typically given by government officials for especially good ozone seasons, probably the least important explanation, if it is an explanation at all, for these results is North Carolina’s Clean Smokestacks Bill (CSB) passed in 2002. Evidence for this can be seen by examining results in North Carolina’s neighboring states, all of whom refused to pass such a law. South Carolina, for example, had no high ozone readings on its monitors this summer, while Virginia had only two. A previous study by the John Locke Foundation has shown that, in comparing data to other states without these same regulations, there is no evidence that the CSB has had any impact on the number of high ozone readings in the state.
Finally, I would like to give the readers of this newsletter a heads up about the American Lung Association’s State of the Air report which will appear next May with, as is typical, great fanfare from the media. The report ranks states and counties based on numbers of high ozone days. The methodology of the report has a number of problems that heavily biases it toward an alarmist picture of air quality. For example, it is not unusual for a region to be in complete compliance with EPA standards while still receiving a grade of F from the ALA. But what I want to emphasize here is that this year’s data will be excluded from their study until 2015. The ALA never relies on the most recent available data. Next year it will cover a three-year period from 2010 through 2012. Relative to 2013, these years would have to be considered quite high (note graph below). People reading this report should be aware that they will not be getting the most recent information about smog in North Carolina.
2. 2013 Ozone, our final report: October 28-31
This is the last report of the official ozone season, as designated by the Environmental Protection Agency, with data gathered by the North Carolina Division of Air Quality. The 2013 ozone season began on April 1 and ended October 31. During the final period from October 28-31, there were, once again, no high-ozone (smog) days recorded. For the state as a whole, there has been only 1 high ozone day registered on one monitor in 2013. This monitor was in Forsyth County and barely crossed the threshold of 76 parts per billion set by the EPA.
All reported data is preliminary and issued by the North Carolina Division of Air Quality, which is part of the state’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources. The table below shows all of North Carolina’s ozone monitors and the number of high ozone days for the week and the year to date.
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