by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
A new survey in the key swing state of Georgia finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by eight percentage points, offering further evidence that the Biden campaign and Democrats ought to be sweating. The national polling looks really grim for Biden, too — he’s showing surprisingly weak numbers not just among independents, but among women, blacks, Hispanics, and college graduates. Vast swaths of demographics that the Democratic Party is used to winning by a wide margin sound like they’re ready to give up on Joe Biden. …
… I will be heading to a state that Donald Trump won by about five percentage points in 2016, lost narrowly in 2020, and is leading over Biden, 45 percent to 37 percent, in the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll:
“The poll showed nearly 20% of Georgians weren’t ready to support either candidate as the presidential race shifts from Iowa after Trump’s dominant victory Monday in the first nominating contest of the 2024 election cycle.” …
… “The president’s backing among independents is dismal, with only 37% giving him favorable reviews compared with 54% who disapprove of his performance. And Black voters, the party’s most loyal constituency, are split over his handling of the nation’s top office.”
You have to look at the survey itself to get those specific numbers; 45.5 percent of blacks say they approve of the job Biden is doing, 44.1 percent say they disapprove, and 10.4 percent say they don’t know. When asked whom they would vote for in November, 58.6 percent of blacks said Biden, 20.4 percent said Trump, 2.6 percent volunteered some other candidate who wasn’t listed as an option, 10.2 percent said they would not vote in the presidential election — which was volunteered, not listed as an option! — and 8.2 percent said they didn’t know.