Brianna Lyman writes for the Federalist about an important factor in the 2024 presidential election race.
During a recent segment on “Saturday Night Live,” Michael Che joked President Joe Biden, like the Baltimore bridge that collapsed, “is no longer connecting with black communities.” But for the Biden campaign, it’s not funny. In fact, the president’s low approval ratings and apparent inability to inspire enthusiasm among black voters could mean a repeat of 2016 for Democrats, if the enthusiasm gap is wide enough to outweigh Democrats’ ballot trafficking operations.
A poll surveying Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin conducted by the Wall Street Journal found that Biden is winning about 68 percent of black voters in those swing states — a low number, by historical comparison. During the 2020 election, Biden received 91 percent of the black vote nationwide, according to the WSJ.
The WSJ poll, which was conducted March 17-24 and included 600 voters in each state, isn’t the first to suggest black voters may be growing dissatisfied with the Biden administration. In November, a New York Times and Siena College poll found 22 percent of black voters in six key swing states would choose Trump over Biden. A December poll from the University of Chicago found 63 percent of black Americans would vote for Biden while 20 percent said they would vote for “someone else” besides Trump or Biden. Seventeen percent said they would choose Trump.
An NBC News poll also found that while black voters may still overwhelmingly favor Biden when compared to Trump, “the margin shrank” when it came to those under the age of 34. Biden’s support went from 73 percent among black voters of all ages to 60 percent amongst those under 34. Meanwhile, Trump went from 17 percent to 28 percent respectively, according to the poll. The demographic is key for Biden, who won “89% of Black voters under 29 and 78% of those 30 to 44,” according to the poll.
