John Hood offers National Review Online readers his observations about the nation’s most hotly contested gubernatorial campaigns, including North Carolina’s race.
During much of the 2016 cycle, it certainly looked like Democrats would make a substantial recovery in down-ballot races. For example, of the six potentially competitive races for governor — in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Vermont, and New Hampshire — Democrats looked likely to hold their offices (in the final four states) while being favored to pick off Governor Pat McCrory in North Carolina and Mike Pence’s successor in Indiana, Eric Holcomb. Thus they hoped to shrink the GOP’s current lead of 31 governorships to the Democrats’ 18. (Bill Walker, the governor of Alaska, was elected on the Alaska First Unity Ticket but was a longtime Republican pol before 2014). In the last few weeks of the cycle, however, the Republicans have closed strongly. In some cases, they have made remarkable recoveries, pulling within striking distance or even ahead of their (surprised) Democratic opponents. …
… The largest gubernatorial prize of the night, both in population and in national political prominence, will be my home state. To paraphrase George Will, North Carolina produces more politics than we can consume locally. The riots that followed the September police shooting in Charlotte, the ravages of Hurricane Matthew, political and judicial tussles over voter ID and election laws, furious fights over state taxes and spending, and the debate about the controversial HB 2 law have all played significant roles in the contest between one-term Republican incumbent McCrory, the former longtime mayor of Charlotte, and his Democratic challenger, four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper. This has been America’s most-polled gubernatorial race by far, allowing for a more detailed analysis of its ebbs and flows. During the summer, the national furor about HB 2 helped Cooper achieve a sizable lead over McCrory, with some high-quality polls putting the challenger above 50 percent. This wasn’t a case of North Carolina voters disagreeing with every aspect of the law, by the way. Instead, it was a combination of the issue crowding out every other issue in the campaign — North Carolina’s economy is doing comparatively well, which would normally boost the incumbent — as well as many voters coming to the conclusion there should have been a way to safeguard privacy without producing the boycotts, lost sporting events, and adverse publicity of HB 2.
During the homestretch of the campaign, however, it began to tighten. Cooper’s average lead went from six points in August to just two points in September. By mid-October, it was down to a single point, at 47 percent Cooper to 46 percent McCrory, thanks in part to the governor’s strong leadership during the Charlotte riots and Hurricane Matthew recovery as well as Cooper’s poor debate performances. In the final days of the campaign, Cooper’s public-polling lead has broadened out slightly, to two points, but I’m told that both parties’ internal polls show it far closer, and North Carolina Republicans are currently feeling good about the early voting trends and other dynamics.
