Matthew Continetti poses several key questions about the American electorate this year.
President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump squared off four years ago and are on track for the first major-party rematch since 1892. Biden and Trump are the oldest presidential candidates in history, and each man has an established political brand. Biden first won federal office in 1972, and it’s been over a decade since the GOP nominated someone other than Donald Trump. The 2024 election is like all the SIRIUS XM oldies stations—Classic Vinyl, Classic Rewind, Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Radio—rolled into one.
Still, as familiar as the campaign may seem, there remain several unknowns. …
… Will the Trump Trials Matter? Many voters say Trump would be unfit for the presidency if a jury found him guilty of a crime. The November New York Times / Siena College poll had a Trump win turn into a loss in the case of a Trump conviction. The January NBC News poll found a similar result. In the Super Tuesday exit poll, roughly a third of Republican primary voters in Virginia and in North Carolina said a conviction would render Trump unfit. Twenty-three percent of GOP voters in California agreed.
While there’s a difference between telling a pollster that a conviction should disqualify Trump and staying home or voting for Biden, Trump can’t afford to risk his comeback on juries in New York, Washington, D.C., Georgia, and Florida. That’s why he has tried to postpone his four criminal trials until after Election Day. …
… Will Biden or Trump Have a Health Episode? One reason to be skeptical that a conviction in the Bragg case would doom Trump is that a supermajority of voters says that Biden’s age makes him unfit for another term. If a conviction happens, we are back where we started: a choice between two candidates hardly anybody wants.
It’s worse for Biden, though. …
… Who Will Be Trump’s Running Mate? The long general-election campaign ahead will feature at least one dramatic moment: Trump’s selection of a vice-presidential nominee. Trump’s pick may not figure heavily in voters’ preferences, but it will say something about where Trump wants the GOP to go in 2028 and beyond.
