by Jordan Roberts
Former Director of Government Affairs, John Locke Foundation
Researchers from North Carolina released a new model today that suggests North Carolina may need to continue current social distancing measures through the end of May.
The model considers two scenarios for the state moving forward:
The first exhibit in the report shows the likelihood of exceeding acute care bed capacity under each scenario:
The red line indicates the probability of exceeding acute care bed capacity if the state lifts social distancing mandates at the end of the current stay-at-home order. Similarly, the blue line indicates the probability of exceeding acute care bed capacity if social distancing mandates continue throughout the month of May.
The report also provides an exhibit showing the likelihood of the state exceeding ICU bed capacity under each scenario:
This model was released as the national models from researchers at Washington University’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) show a much more optimistic trajectory for North Carolina. Here is a screengrab from the website this morning:
For comparison, here is what the IHME website showed on April 1st for North Carolina’s trajectory: